Calculated Choices in Policy-Making : The Theory and Practice of Impact Assessment,9780312219840

Calculated Choices in Policy-Making : The Theory and Practice of Impact Assessment

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ISBN13: 9780312219840
ISBN10: 0312219849
Format: Trade Book
Pub. Date: 1999-02-15
Publisher(s): Palgrave Macmillan
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Summary

This is a book about making choices based on the evaluation of alternatives. Primarily written for people having to learn to make policy decisions, the methods discussed are generally applicable. The starting point of the book is the notion that the outcomes of choices are often worse than people expect. To improve outcomes, an evaluation beforehand and a thorough deliberation of the advantages of various alternatives can be useful. This book discusses the major problems and makes recommendations for decision makers who want to optimize the outcomes of their choices.

Author Biography

Michiel S. de Vries is Senior Lecturer in the Department of Political and Administrative Studies at Vrye University.

Table of Contents

List of tables
xi(2)
List of figures
xiii(1)
List of formulae xiv(1)
Preface xv
1 An introduction to making calculated choices
1(34)
Introduction 1(4)
1.1 An example
5(2)
1.2 What does impact assessment look like?
7(1)
1.3 Developments in the application of the methodology
8(1)
1.4 Impact assessment as an advanced cost-benefit analysis
9(7)
1.5 Impact assessment within the framework of evaluation research
16(11)
1.5.1 User-oriented approach
18(1)
1.5.2 The independence of evaluation methodology
19(2)
1.5.3 Effect orientation
21(5)
1.5.4 Value-bound
26(1)
1.6 A tactical approach
27(6)
1.6.1 Choices in policy-making
28(1)
1.6.2 Alternatives and criteria
29(1)
1.6.3 Test scores
29(1)
1.6.4 The importance of criteria
29(1)
1.6.5 Compilation
30(2)
1.6.6 Analysis
32(1)
1.6.7 Leave the decision to the decision maker
33(1)
1.7 Structure of the book
33(1)
1.8 Summary
34(1)
2 The task is to make a well-thought-out choice
35(16)
Introduction 35(2)
2.1 The elements of policy-making
37(3)
2.2 Merits of the tactical approach
40(9)
2.2.1 Problems with an intuitive choice process
41(4)
2.2.2 Advantages of the tactical approach
45(1)
2.2.3 Problems with the tactical approach
46(3)
2.3 Conclusion
49(2)
3 Alternatives and criteria
51(24)
Introduction 51(2)
3.1 The relationship between information and decision-making quality
53(6)
3.1.1 Incrementalists and synopticians
53(3)
3.1.2 Information theory and cybernetics
56(3)
3.2 What determines information search behaviour?
59(9)
3.2.1 Factors related to the content of the choice problem
59(1)
3.2.2 Factors related to the characteristics of the Decision maker(s)
60(8)
3.3 Does an optimum exist?
68(1)
3.4 Types of criteria
69(3)
3.5 Types of alternatives
72(2)
3.6 Conclusion
74(1)
4 Determining how well alternatives score on criteria
75(47)
Introduction 75(1)
4.1 Criteria and indicators
76(3)
4.2 Methods for determining criterion scores
79(28)
4.2.1 Information from previous evaluations
79(9)
4.2.2 Information derived from performance indicators
88(10)
4.2.3 Ask the experts: the classic Delphi method
98(2)
4.2.4 The policy Delphi
100(1)
4.2.5 Comparative case studies
101(6)
4.3 Environmental impact assessment in practice
107(12)
4.3.1 A meta evaluation
108(1)
4.3.2 The outcomes of content analysis
109(10)
4.4 Conclusion
119(3)
5 The weight of criteria
122(26)
Introduction 122(2)
5.1 The basic problems
124(1)
5.2 Theories on prioritizing
124(8)
5.3 Methodological aspects of weight determination
132(4)
5.4 Transformation of weights
136(6)
5.5 Attribution of weights in practice
142(5)
5.6 Conclusion
147(1)
6 Compilation into a ranking order
148(25)
Introduction 148(1)
6.1 Utility of alternatives
149(4)
6.1.1 Bentham
150(1)
6.1.2 John Stuart Mill
151(1)
6.1.3 The utility formula
152(1)
6.2 Decision rules
153(3)
6.3 The example
156(1)
6.4 Various analytical techniques
156(15)
6.5 Interpretation of ranking order
171(1)
6.5.1 Variation of outcomes with identical scores
171(1)
6.5.2 Input of scores in a new analysis
172(1)
6.6 Conclusion
172(1)
7 Analysing the outcomes
173(22)
Introduction 173(1)
7.1 Decision requirements
174(4)
7.2 A simplified example
178(2)
7.3 The analysis
180(5)
7.3.1 Adding bad alternatives
180(3)
7.3.2 Adding criteria
183(2)
7.4 Stepwise and pairwise analysis
185(3)
7.5 The `locations for a nuclear power station' case
188(4)
7.6 Conclusion
192(3)
8 Leave the decision to the decision makers
195(10)
Introduction 195(2)
8.1 Advantages of impact assessment
197(1)
8.2 Use of impact assessment in decision-making
197(1)
8.3 Threatening information
198(1)
8.4 The strategic nature of impact assessment
199(4)
8.5 Conclusion
203(2)
References 205(10)
Subject Index 215(4)
Author Index 219

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