Preface |
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ix | |
PART I: MODELS AND MEASUREMENT |
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Mathematical Models in Psychology |
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3 | (18) |
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A Thumbnail History of Models in Psychology |
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4 | (5) |
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On the Functions of Models |
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9 | (2) |
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11 | (10) |
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Signal Detection Theory as Data Analysis Method and Psychological Decision Model |
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21 | (38) |
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22 | (18) |
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40 | (3) |
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43 | (11) |
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54 | (5) |
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What Is and Isn't Measurement |
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59 | (36) |
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``Myths'' About Measurement |
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59 | (17) |
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What Is Psychological Measurement |
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76 | (12) |
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88 | (7) |
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95 | (70) |
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96 | (1) |
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97 | (2) |
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99 | (5) |
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Research Design, Data Collection, and Interpretation |
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104 | (8) |
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112 | (31) |
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143 | (10) |
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153 | (12) |
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Can the Various Meanings of Probability Be Reconciled? |
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165 | (34) |
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165 | (3) |
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An Informal Description of the Ideal Picture |
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168 | (4) |
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A Formalization of the Ideal Picture |
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172 | (19) |
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The Diversity of Application |
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191 | (8) |
PART II: METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES |
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Rational Appraisal of Psychological Research and the Good-Enough Principle |
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199 | (30) |
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199 | (1) |
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The Meehlian Indictment of Psychology |
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200 | (3) |
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Slow Progress Reconsidered: A Historicist Approach |
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203 | (5) |
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The Good-Enough Principle |
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208 | (14) |
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Psychology and Physics Reconsidered |
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222 | (3) |
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225 | (4) |
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The Theoretical Epistemology: A New Perspective on Some Long-Standing Methodological Issues in Psychology |
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229 | (28) |
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Unsolved Methodological Issues |
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229 | (3) |
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Current Attempts to Solve These Problems |
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232 | (2) |
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The Two Epistemologies in General Overview |
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234 | (9) |
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Methodology Under the Two Epistemologies |
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243 | (5) |
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Why Previous Solutions Failed: The View from the Theoretical Epistemology |
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248 | (1) |
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A New Perspective on Methodological Issues |
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249 | (3) |
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252 | (5) |
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Between - or Within-Subjects Design: A Methodological Dilemma |
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257 | (16) |
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258 | (2) |
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260 | (4) |
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External Validity and Theoretical Framework |
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264 | (4) |
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Direct Comparisions of Between- Versus Within-Subjects Designs |
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268 | (3) |
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271 | (2) |
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Which Comes First, Cause or Effect? |
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273 | (10) |
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The Cause of An Effect Versus The Effect of a Cause |
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273 | (1) |
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274 | (3) |
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277 | (3) |
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What About Path Analysis? |
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280 | (3) |
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R. A. Fisher's Philosophical Approach to Inductive Inference |
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283 | (28) |
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283 | (1) |
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Evolution, Eugenics, and Genetics---Cambridge |
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284 | (3) |
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287 | (5) |
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Mathematics and Induction |
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292 | (5) |
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297 | (4) |
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The Design of Experiments---Rothampsted |
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301 | (3) |
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304 | (7) |
PART III: INTUITIVE STATISTICS |
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The Superego, the Ego, and the Id in Statistical Reasoning |
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311 | (30) |
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311 | (11) |
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The Offspring: Hybrid Logic |
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322 | (10) |
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Beyond Dogmatism: Toward a Thoughtful Use of Statistics |
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332 | (1) |
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333 | (2) |
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335 | (6) |
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Belief in the Law of Small Numbers |
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341 | (10) |
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Statistical Prediction Versus Clinical Prediction: Improving What Works |
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351 | (18) |
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352 | (2) |
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354 | (4) |
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Characteristics of the Problem |
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358 | (2) |
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Objections to the Results |
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360 | (2) |
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362 | (7) |
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The Perception of Randomness |
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369 | (26) |
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Why Study the Perception of Randomness? |
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369 | (13) |
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382 | (6) |
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388 | (7) |
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On Generating Random Sequences |
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395 | (24) |
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395 | (1) |
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What Are Random Sequences? |
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396 | (3) |
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Features of Random Number Generators |
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399 | (2) |
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Some Classes of Random Number Generators |
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401 | (3) |
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Distributions of Random Numbers |
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404 | (1) |
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405 | (4) |
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409 | (10) |
PART IV: HYPOTHESIS TESTING, POWER, AND EFFECT SIZE |
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Consequences of Prejudice, Against the Null Hypothesis |
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419 | (30) |
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The Lowly Null Hypothesis |
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419 | (1) |
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Refutations of Null Hypothesis ``Cultural Truisms'' |
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420 | (1) |
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Behavioral Syptoms of Anti-Null-Hypothesis Prejudice |
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421 | (1) |
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A Survey to Estimate Bias Against the Null Hypothesis |
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422 | (3) |
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A Model of the Research-Publication System |
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425 | (1) |
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426 | (4) |
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430 | (4) |
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A Check on the Model's Accuracy |
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434 | (1) |
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Toward a More Satisfactory System |
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435 | (1) |
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System Effect on Generality of Research Findings |
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435 | (2) |
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Some Epidemics of Type I Error |
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437 | (1) |
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Attitude and Selective Learning |
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437 | (1) |
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438 | (1) |
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Quasi-Sensory Communication |
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439 | (1) |
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Rational Strategies Regarding the Null Hypothesis |
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440 | (2) |
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How to Accept The Null Hypothesis Gracefully |
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442 | (4) |
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446 | (3) |
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How Significant Is ``Significance''? |
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449 | (12) |
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The Probability of a Type I Error |
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450 | (3) |
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Confusion Between the Prior and Posterior Probabilities |
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453 | (1) |
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Sources of Confusion: Statistics Teaching |
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454 | (1) |
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Sources of Confusion: Inferential Fallacies |
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455 | (2) |
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Can We Determine the Posterior Probability of a Type I Error |
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457 | (1) |
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458 | (3) |
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461 | (20) |
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Other Traditional Measures of Effect Size |
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463 | (7) |
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Some Recently Developed Measures of Effect Size |
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470 | (4) |
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Multivariate Extensions of Effect Size |
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474 | (4) |
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478 | (3) |
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The Relative Power of Parametric and Nonparametric Statistical Methods |
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481 | (38) |
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Classical Studies of Parametric Tests Under Violation of Assumptions |
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482 | (1) |
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Power Superiority of Nonparametric Tests for Heavy-Tailed Distributions |
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483 | (3) |
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Outlier-Prone and Outlier-Resistand Distribution |
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486 | (4) |
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Computer Simulation Method |
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490 | (2) |
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Further Evidence That Outlier Influence Relative Power of Parametric and Nonparametric Tests |
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492 | (3) |
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Bounded Transformations That Are Not Ranks |
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495 | (6) |
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Transformations That Do Not Preserve Order |
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501 | (3) |
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Rank Transformations and Unequal Variances |
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504 | (7) |
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Transformations, Scales of Measurement, and Appropriate Statistics |
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511 | (8) |
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519 | (42) |
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Defining Results of Individual Studies |
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520 | (1) |
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Effect Size and Statistical Significance |
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521 | (2) |
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A Framework for Meta-Analytic Procedures |
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523 | (2) |
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525 | (2) |
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527 | (2) |
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Comparing Three or More Studies: Diffuse Tests |
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529 | (1) |
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Comparing Three or More Studies: Focused Tests (Contrasts) |
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530 | (3) |
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Combining Three or More Studies |
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533 | (2) |
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Comparing and Combining Results That Are Not Independent |
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535 | (1) |
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535 | (3) |
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The Evaluation of Effect Sizes |
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538 | (3) |
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The Concept of Successful Replication |
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541 | (1) |
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Pseudo-Failures to Replicate |
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542 | (2) |
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Successful Replication of Type II Error |
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544 | (2) |
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Some Metrics of the Success of Replication |
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546 | |
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Contrasting Views of Replication |
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544 | (8) |
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552 | (9) |
Author Index |
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561 | (12) |
Subject Index |
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573 | |