Analyzing Public Policy,9781568025551

Analyzing Public Policy

by
ISBN13: 9781568025551
ISBN10: 1568025556
Format: Paperback
Pub. Date: 2001-05-01
Publisher(s): Cq Pr
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Table of Contents

Tables, Figures, and ``A Case in Point''
xv
Preface xxi
Introduction
1(19)
The Study of Public Policy
2(11)
Four Models of Policy Analysis
3(2)
Economic Rationality, Quantitative Analyses, and Human Behavior
5(6)
Value Judgments
11(2)
Ethics and Public Policy Making
13(4)
Value Neutrality: Fact or Fiction?
14(2)
Value Conflict
16(1)
Key Words
17(1)
Exercises
17(1)
Notes
17(3)
Government and the Market
20(26)
The Fundamental Contributions of Economic Analyses
22(4)
Economic Rationality
23(1)
Marginal Analysis
23(3)
Opportunity Costs
26(1)
Market Failure: Why Government Interferes in a Free Market
26(7)
Lack of Competition
27(1)
Barriers to Entry and Exit
28(2)
Restricted Flow of Information
30(1)
Externalities and Social Costs
30(2)
Rising Service Costs: The Appearance of Market Failure
32(1)
Government as a Partner
33(1)
Government Failure
34(5)
Inability to Define Social Welfare
34(1)
Limits of Democracy and the Paradox of Voting
35(1)
Inability to Define the Marginal Benefits and Costs of Public Goods
36(1)
Political Constraints
36(1)
Cultural Constraints
37(1)
Institutional Constraints
37(1)
Legal Constraints
37(1)
Knowledge Constraints
38(1)
Analytical Constraints
38(1)
Timing of Policies
38(1)
Limiting Government Intervention: Joint Partnership in a Mixed Economy
39(4)
Stimulating the Market
39(1)
Simulating the Market
40(3)
Key Words
43(1)
Exercises
43(1)
Notes
44(2)
The Policy Process
46(24)
Agenda Setting
47(9)
The Pluralist Model
49(1)
The Elitist Model
50(3)
Impact of Sensational Events
53(2)
Evaluating Costs and Benefits
55(1)
Policy Formulation
56(4)
Explaining Behavior
57(1)
Forecasting Effects
58(1)
Conflict, Inaction, and Nondecision
58(2)
Policy Adoption
60(1)
Policy Implementation
61(2)
Policy Evaluation
63(1)
Policy Change
64(1)
Policy Termination
65(1)
Key Words
66(1)
Exercises
67(1)
Notes
67(3)
Critical Thinking and Research Design
70(32)
Five Steps of Objective Analysis
71(3)
Setting Goals
74(5)
Utilitarians and the Pareto Principle
76(1)
The Kaldor-Hicks Compensation Principle
77(1)
The Rawlsian Challenge
78(1)
Choosing a Method of Analysis
79(6)
Experimental Design
80(1)
Quasi-Experimental Design
81(4)
Choosing the Right Model
85(1)
Designing Policy Research
86(4)
Limiting the Number of Alternatives
86(1)
Accepting or Rejecting a Project
87(3)
Ensuring the Process Is Fair
90(1)
Making Quick Decisions
90(2)
Challenges to Critical Thinking: Biases in Reasoning
92(5)
Representativeness
92(3)
Availability of Information
95(2)
Biases of Adjustment and Anchoring
97(1)
A Few Parting Suggestions
97(1)
Key Words
98(1)
Exercises
99(1)
Notes
99(3)
Basic Statistics
102(20)
Numbers as Storytellers
102(1)
The Building Blocks of Quantitative Analysis
102(1)
Methods of Descriptive Statistics
103(15)
Measures of Central Tendency
104(5)
Measures of Dispersion
109(7)
Which Measures of Central Tendency to Use
116(1)
A Quick Glance at the Distribution: The Stem-Leaf Method
116(2)
Correlation Coefficient: Pearson's R
118(2)
Key Words
120(1)
Exercises
120(1)
Notes
121(1)
Probability and Hypothesis Testing
122(27)
Objective Probability
122(19)
Probability Distribution
125(4)
Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Intervals
129(8)
The Chi-Squared Test
137(4)
Subjective Probability
141(2)
Key Words
143(1)
Exercises
144(4)
Notes
148(1)
Sources of Data
149(27)
What Are We Measuring?
150(2)
Types of Measurement
150(1)
Accuracy of the Measuring Scales
151(1)
Primary Data: Conducting a Survey
152(11)
Designing a Survey
153(1)
Systematic Errors in Sampling
153(3)
Random Sampling Errors
156(2)
Choosing the Sample Population
158(1)
Choosing the Size of the Sample
159(1)
Choosing Effective Survey Instruments
160(2)
Choosing Polling Methods
162(1)
Quantification of Survey Data
163(1)
Reporting of Survey Results
163(1)
Conducting Focus Groups
164(2)
Secondary Data
166(7)
Searching for Information
167(1)
Online Searches
167(5)
Searching the Old-Fashioned Way
172(1)
When Data Are Not Available
173(1)
Key Words
173(1)
Exercises
173(1)
Notes
174(2)
Making Sense of Numbers
176(24)
A Picture's Worth: The Graphical Methods of Analysis
177(10)
Current vs. Constant Dollars
177(4)
Percentage Change
181(1)
Creating an Index
182(2)
Choosing the Type of Graph to Use
184(2)
Graphical Methods in Decision Making
186(1)
To Tell the Truth and Nothing but the Truth
187(8)
Interpretation and Deception
190(5)
Tabular Presentation of Data
195(1)
Those Not-So-Innocent Numbers
195(2)
Structure Above a Swamp
197(1)
Key Words
198(1)
Exercises
198(1)
Notes
199(1)
Projection Techniques: When History Is Inadequate
200(25)
Projection Versus Causal Prediction
200(2)
Inadequacy of History
202(6)
Single-Factor Projection
202(2)
Fiscal Impact Analysis
204(2)
Problems of Single-Factor Analysis
206(2)
Judgmental Methods of Projection
208(14)
The Delphi Technique
208(4)
The Feasibility Assessment Technique
212(6)
The Expected Utility Model
218(3)
Origin of the Numbers
221(1)
Shortcomings of the Judgmental Methods
221(1)
Key Words
222(1)
Exercises
222(1)
Notes
223(2)
Projection Techniques: Analysis of Historical Data
225(20)
The Components of a Data Series
226(3)
The Patterns of Time Trend
229(2)
Adjustment Methods
231(4)
Seasonal Adjustment
232(2)
Trend Adjustment
234(1)
Smoothing Out the Fluctuations
235(5)
Projecting the Immediate Past: Naive Projection
236(2)
Projecting by the Mean
238(1)
Moving Average
238(2)
Choice of Projection Technique
240(1)
The Politics of Forecasting
240(2)
Key Words
242(1)
Exercises
242(2)
Notes
244(1)
Projection Techniques: The Methods of Simple and Multiple Least Squares
245(45)
The Logic of Least Squares Method
246(4)
Linear Time Trend: Simple Regression Model
250(10)
Accuracy of the Results
253(1)
High R2
254(1)
Relevance of the Estimated Coefficients
255(1)
The Significance of Individual Coefficients
256(3)
Presentation of Estimation Results
259(1)
The Number of Observations
259(1)
Trend Changes: Building Multiple Regression Models
260(9)
Abrupt Changes in Trend
261(4)
Abrupt Changes in Slope
265(4)
Gradual Changes in Trend: Estimation of Nonlinear Trends
269(10)
Polynomial Forms
269(3)
Higher-Order Polynomials
272(1)
Log-Transformed Forms
273(2)
Inverse Forms
275(1)
The Problem of Irrelevant Independent Variables: Adjusted R2
276(2)
The Significance of Coefficients Taken Together
278(1)
Choosing the Correct Functional Form
278(1)
Forecasting and Its Problems
279(3)
Point Forecasts
279(1)
Internal Forecasts
280(2)
Explaining the Present with the Past: Lagged Dependent Variables
282(2)
Forecasting by Curve Fitting: A Step-by-Step Approach
284(1)
Key Words
285(1)
Exercises
285(3)
Notes
288(2)
Models of Causal Prediction: Multiple Regression
290(40)
Building a Causal Model
291(2)
Causality Versus Co-occurrence
293(1)
Estimation of the Model
294(2)
How Good Is the Model?
296(11)
Choosing Independent Variables
296(6)
Searching for the Proper List of Independent Variables
302(1)
Predicting on the Basis of the Wrong Functional Specification
303(4)
When Regression Results Are Suspect: The Errors of Estimation
307(18)
Identifying Multicollinearity
307(5)
Resolving Multicollinearity
312(2)
Identifying Serial Correlation
314(2)
Heteroskedasticity: The Problem of Scaling Variables
316(2)
Detecting Heteroskedasticity
318(2)
Effects of Heteroskedasticity
320(1)
Correcting Heteroskedasticity
320(1)
When the Data Are Imperfect
321(1)
Beta Coefficient: Measuring the Relative Strength of the Independent Variables
322(3)
Summary: Step-by-Step Suggestions for Building a Model of Causal Prediction
325(1)
Key Words
325(1)
Exercises
326(2)
Notes
328(2)
The Elements of Strategic Thinking: Decision Tree and Game Theory
330(27)
Getting a Grip on Uncertainity
331(2)
Decision Making and Expected Payoff
333(1)
The Decision Tree
333(10)
Structuring a Decision Tree
336(1)
Evaluating Flood Damage Reduction
336(6)
Risk Tolerance and Expected Payoff
342(1)
Two Active Players: Game Theory
343(8)
Game Theory in Local Government Decision Making
348(2)
The Golden Rules of Decision Making under Uncertainty
350(1)
Strategies to Overcome the Prisoner's Dilemma
351(2)
Other Strategies: Trust and Bargaining
353(1)
Key Words
353(1)
Excercises
353(2)
Notes
355(2)
Choosing the Best Alternative: Cost-Benefit Analysis
357(27)
Social versus Private Cost-Benefit Analysis
359(1)
Defining Goals
359(1)
Identifying Alternatives
359(1)
Listing Costs and Benefits of the Alternatives
360(1)
Estimation and Valuation of Benefits and Costs
361(6)
Can We Put a Price Tag on the Intangibles of Life?
363(2)
How Can We Measure Future Loss or Gain?
365(2)
Introduction of Time: Present Value Analysis
367(9)
Choice of Time Horizon
371(1)
Choice of Discount Rate
372(3)
The Internal Rate of Return
375(1)
Choosing the Best Alternative
376(5)
Sensitivity Analysis
376(1)
Cost-Benefit Ratio
377(1)
The Limits of Cost-Benefit Analysis Redistribution of Income
378(1)
Cost-Effective Analysis
379(2)
Key Words
381(1)
Exercises
382(1)
Notes
383(1)
The ``Good Enough'' Policy Analyst
384(3)
Notes
386(1)
Appendix A Areas of the Standard Normal Distribution (the Z table) 387(1)
Appendix B Critical Values of the Distribution 388(1)
Appendix C Critical Values of the FStatistic: 5 Percent Level of Significance 389(1)
Appendix D Critical Values of the FStatistic: 1 Percent Level of Significance 390(1)
Appendix E The Chi-Square Distribution 391(2)
Index 393

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