Bayesian Methods: An Analysis for Statisticians and Interdisciplinary Researchers

by
Edition: Reprint
Format: Paperback
Pub. Date: 2001-08-06
Publisher(s): Cambridge University Press
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Summary

This book describes the Bayesian approach to statistics at a level suitable for final year undergraduate and Masters students. It is unique in presenting Bayesian statistics with a practical flavor and an emphasis on mainstream statistics, showing how to infer scientific, medical, and social conclusions from numerical data. The authors draw on many years of experience with practical and research programs and describe many new statistical methods, not available elsewhere. A first chapter on Fisherian methods, together with a strong overall emphasis on likelihood, makes the text suitable for mainstream statistics courses whose instructors wish to follow mixed or comparative philosophies. The other chapters contain important sections relating to many areas of statistics such as the linear model, categorical data analysis, time series and forecasting, mixture models, survival analysis, Bayesian smoothing, and non-linear random effects models. The text includes a large number of practical examples, worked examples, and exercises. It will be essential reading for all statisticians, statistics students, and related interdisciplinary researchers.

Table of Contents

Preface xi
Introductory Statistical Concepts
1(74)
Preliminaries and Overview
1(5)
Sampling Models and Likelihoods
6(13)
Practical Examples
19(14)
Large Sample Properties of Likelihood Procedures
33(9)
Practical Examples
42(3)
Some Further Properties of Likelihood
45(18)
Practical Examples
63(3)
The Midcontinental Rift
66(2)
A Model for Genetic Traits in Dairy Science
68(1)
Least Squares Regression with Serially Correlated Errors
68(1)
Annual World Crude Oil Production (1880-1972)
69(6)
The Discrete Version of Bayes' Theorem
75(23)
Preliminaries and Overview
75(1)
Bayes' Theorem
76(5)
Estimating a Discrete-Valued Parameter
81(1)
Applications to Model Selection
82(4)
Practical Examples
86(2)
Logistic Discrimination and the Construction of Neural Nets
88(3)
Anderson's Prediction of Psychotic Patients
91(1)
The Ontario Fetal Metabolic Acidosis Study
92(4)
Practical Guidelines
96(2)
Models with a Single Unknown Parameter
98(67)
Preliminaries and Overview
98(1)
The Bayesian Paradigm
99(6)
Posterior and Predictive Inferences
105(12)
Practical Examples
117(3)
Inferences for a Normal Mean with Known Variance
120(10)
Practical Examples
130(4)
Vague Prior Information
134(8)
Practical Examples
142(1)
Bayes Estimators and Decision Rules and Their Frequency Properties
143(12)
Practical Examples
155(2)
Symmetric Loss Functions
157(6)
Practical Example: Mixtures of Normal Distributions
163(2)
The Expected Utility Hypothesis
165(24)
Preliminaries and Overview
165(1)
Classical Theory
166(6)
The Savage Axioms
172(4)
Modifications to the Expected Utility Hypothesis
176(3)
The Experimental Measurement of E-Adjusted Utility
179(3)
The Risk-Aversion Paradox
182(3)
The Ellsberg Paradox
185(2)
A Practical Case Study
187(2)
Models with Several Unknown Parameters
189(53)
Preliminaries and Overview
189(1)
Bayesian Marginalization
190(27)
Further Methods and Practical Examples
217(16)
The Kalman Filter
233(4)
An On-Line Analysis of Chemical Process Readings
237(1)
An Industrial Control Chart
238(1)
Forecasting Geographical Proportions for World Sales of Fibers
239(1)
Bayesian Forecasting in Economics
240(2)
Prior Structuras, Posterior Smoothing, and Bayes-Stein Estimation
242(61)
Preliminaries and Overview
242(1)
Multivariate Normal Priors for the Transformed Parameters
243(10)
Posterior Mode Vectors and Laplacian Approximations
253(6)
Prior Structures, and Modeling for Nonrandomized Data
259(16)
Monte Carlo Methods and Importance Sampling
275(6)
Further Special Cases and Practical Examples
281(14)
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Methods: The Gibbs Sampler
295(1)
Modeling Sampling Distributions, Using MCMC
295(2)
Equally Weighted Mixtures and Survivor Functions
297(3)
A Hierarchical Bayes Analysis
300(3)
References 303(18)
Author Index 321(5)
Subject Index 326

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