Preface |
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xv | |
Challenging Widely Accepted Claims |
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xv | |
Empowering Students to Evaluate Claims for Themselves |
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xvii | |
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1. Distinguishing Science from Pseudoscience |
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xvii | |
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2. Teaching Critical Thinking Skills |
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xvii | |
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3. Using Memorable Examples |
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xviii | |
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4. Exploring Material Relevant to Many Courses |
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xviii | |
Broad Coverage Complemented by Electronic Resources |
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xviii | |
New to the Second Edition |
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xix | |
Acknowledgments |
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xx | |
About the Author |
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xx | |
Evaluating Sources Whether in Print or on the Internet |
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xxiii | |
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xxiv | |
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Criteria for Evaluating the Quality of Sources |
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xxv | |
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xxv | |
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xxvi | |
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The Internet as a Research Tool |
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xxvii | |
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xxviii | |
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xxix | |
Part One DECEPTION |
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Chapter 1 Introduction: Pseudoscience and the Need for Critical Thinking |
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1 | (13) |
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Separating Sense from Nonsense |
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3 | (3) |
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4 | (1) |
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Systematic Errors Reveal Our Mental Shortcuts |
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4 | (1) |
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The Pros and Cons of Relying on Shortcuts |
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5 | (1) |
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5 | (1) |
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Applying the Tools of Critical Thinking |
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6 | (1) |
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Ten Characteristics of Pseudoscience |
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6 | (4) |
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1. Outward Appearance of Science |
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6 | (1) |
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2. Absence of Skeptical Peer Review |
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7 | (1) |
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3. Reliance on Personal Experience |
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7 | (1) |
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4. Evasion of Risky Tests |
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8 | (1) |
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5. Retreats to the Supernatural |
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8 | (1) |
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8 | (1) |
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7. Tolerance of Inconsistencies |
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9 | (1) |
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9 | (1) |
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9. Promising the Impossible |
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9 | (1) |
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10 | (1) |
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10 | (4) |
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11 | (1) |
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11 | (1) |
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Part Three: Psychological Tricks |
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12 | (1) |
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Part Four: Decision Making and Ethics |
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13 | (1) |
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Chapter 2 Science: Evaluating Claims to Knowledge |
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14 | (15) |
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15 | (14) |
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15 | (1) |
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16 | (1) |
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17 | (1) |
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17 | (1) |
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18 | (1) |
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19 | (1) |
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20 | (1) |
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20 | (3) |
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The "What Works Is Different for Everybody" Fallacy |
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23 | (1) |
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The "Probability Is Irrelevant to the Unique Individual" Fallacy |
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23 | (1) |
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Voodoo Science and Legal Standards |
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24 | (5) |
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Chapter 3 Language: Misleading and Evasive Tactics |
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29 | (13) |
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Weasel Words and Framing Effects |
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29 | (4) |
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Cooperation and Conversational Maxims |
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33 | (7) |
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Quality: The Myth of "Health Food" |
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33 | (1) |
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Quantity: Suggestive and Leading Questions |
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34 | (2) |
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Relation: The Irrelevant Language of "Alternative" Health Care |
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36 | (2) |
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Manner: The Emptiness of "Holism" |
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38 | (2) |
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Closing Thoughts: False Dichotomies and the Slippery Slope |
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40 | (2) |
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Chapter 4 Magic: The Allure of Exotic Rituals, Fantasy, and Mysticism |
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42 | (12) |
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43 | (1) |
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43 | (2) |
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Belief in a Vitalistic Energy |
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45 | (1) |
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Putting the "Human Energy Field" to the Test |
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46 | (1) |
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The Creation of Superstitions and Exotic Rituals |
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47 | (2) |
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Superstitions as Representative Thinking |
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49 | (1) |
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Maintenance of Superstitions |
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50 | (1) |
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Abuses of Science in Favor of Mysticism |
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51 | (1) |
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The Magic of Modern Technology |
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52 | (2) |
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Chapter 5 Authority: Appeals to Blind Obedience |
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54 | (13) |
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54 | (3) |
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Understanding Milgram's Results |
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57 | (1) |
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58 | (1) |
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Untrustworthy Authorities |
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59 | (3) |
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The "Ancient Wisdom" Fallacy |
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59 | (1) |
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59 | (1) |
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The Fallacy of Self-Proclaimed Expertise |
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60 | (2) |
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Political Lobbying as a Warning Flag |
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62 | (5) |
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The National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine |
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62 | (2) |
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The Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act |
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64 | (3) |
Part Two SELF-DECEPTION |
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Chapter 6 Experience: The Limitations of Testimonials as Evidence |
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67 | (12) |
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68 | (1) |
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69 | (7) |
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69 | (2) |
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71 | (1) |
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The Disease Ran Its Natural Course |
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71 | (1) |
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The Cyclical Nature of Many Diseases |
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72 | (1) |
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72 | (1) |
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72 | (1) |
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73 | (1) |
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73 | (1) |
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73 | (1) |
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Psychological Distortion of Reality |
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74 | (1) |
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75 | (1) |
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Probabilistic General Principles |
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76 | (3) |
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Chapter 7 Plausibility: All Beliefs Are Not Created Equal |
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79 | (15) |
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Magnet Therapy: Claims Versus Reality |
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80 | (3) |
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82 | (1) |
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Magnets and the Human Body |
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82 | (1) |
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The Strength of "Therapeutic" Magnets |
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83 | (1) |
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Homeopathy: Empty Promises |
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83 | (4) |
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84 | (1) |
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The Law of Infinitesimals |
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84 | (2) |
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Evasive Maneuver 1: Lowering the Dilution Factor |
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86 | (1) |
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Evasive Maneuver 2: "Water Memory" |
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86 | (1) |
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Electromagnetic Fields and Cancer |
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87 | (2) |
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Alien Abductions: A Modern-Day Misunderstanding |
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89 | (5) |
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89 | (1) |
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Dull Fantasies and Contradictions |
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90 | (1) |
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91 | (3) |
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Chapter 8 Association: Establishing and Interpreting Correlations |
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94 | (12) |
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Presuming an Association Through Mere Examples |
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96 | (1) |
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Presuming an Association Through a Lone Rate |
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97 | (1) |
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Interpreting a Correlation |
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98 | (4) |
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Causal Relationships Between Correlated Events |
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98 | (1) |
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Three Conditions for Causality |
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99 | (1) |
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Examining Patterns Across Multiple Correlations |
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100 | (2) |
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102 | (2) |
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Do Horoscopes Predict Anything? |
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104 | (2) |
Part Three PSYCHOLOGICAL TRICKS |
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Chapter 9 Risk: Biased Perceptions and the Media Paradox |
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106 | (9) |
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106 | (2) |
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108 | (1) |
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109 | (2) |
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Falling Airplane Parts Revisited |
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111 | (1) |
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112 | (11) |
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Mindful Attention to Media Reports |
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123 | |
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Chapter 10 Belief: Confirmation Bias, Post-Hockery, and Overconfidence |
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115 | (14) |
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Discovery Versus Verification: The Importance of Prediction |
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116 | (4) |
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116 | (2) |
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The "Hot Hand" in Basketball |
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118 | (2) |
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120 | (5) |
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The Rorschach Inkblot Test |
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121 | (1) |
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Graphology: Handwriting Analysis |
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122 | (1) |
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Polygraphy: The "Lie Detector" Test |
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123 | (2) |
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Absent or Misleading Feedback |
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125 | (1) |
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Hindsight Bias and Overconfidence |
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126 | (1) |
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127 | (1) |
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Answers to the Confidence Quiz |
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128 | (1) |
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Chapter 11 Schemes: The Seductiveness of Grand Conspiracy Theories |
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129 | (10) |
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The Three Roles in a Conspiracy Theory |
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129 | (2) |
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129 | (1) |
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130 | (1) |
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130 | (1) |
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A Grand Conspiracy Theory: "Area 51" |
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131 | (2) |
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131 | (1) |
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Thinking Critically About Area 51 |
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132 | (1) |
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Problems Facing Any Grand Conspiracy Theory |
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133 | (1) |
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The "Hidden Cure" Conspiracy |
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134 | (3) |
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Intense Competition Is Ignored |
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134 | (1) |
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The Alleged Profit Motive Makes No Sense |
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135 | (1) |
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Science Is Never Going to Cure All Disease |
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136 | (1) |
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Monumental Callousness Is Presumed |
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136 | (1) |
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Why Does the Theory of Hidden Cures Persist? |
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136 | (1) |
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137 | (2) |
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Chapter 12 Illusions: The Perception of Control |
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139 | (11) |
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140 | (1) |
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141 | (1) |
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The Dangers of Illusions of Control |
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142 | (2) |
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Belief in the "Just World" and the Blaming of Victims |
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142 | (1) |
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143 | (1) |
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144 | (1) |
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The Downside to Mental Imagery |
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144 | (1) |
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The "Choose to Be Healthy" Fallacy |
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145 | (2) |
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Prayer and Religion-Motivated Medical Neglect |
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147 | (3) |
Part Four DECISION MAKING AND ETHICS |
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Chapter 13 Assessment: Classical Decision Theory |
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150 | (20) |
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152 | (1) |
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Classical Decision Theory and Frequency Trees |
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153 | (2) |
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Base Rate: How Rare an Outcome Is One Trying to Detect? |
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155 | (2) |
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Validity: What is the Strength of the Evidence? |
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157 | (3) |
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Threshold: Where Does One Draw the Line to Make a Decision? |
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160 | (1) |
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Laboratory Validity Versus Field Utility |
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161 | (1) |
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162 | (3) |
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165 | (3) |
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165 | (1) |
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166 | (1) |
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167 | (1) |
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Protecting Against Professional Misconduct |
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168 | (2) |
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Chapter 14 Decisions: Clinical Versus Statistical Approaches |
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170 | (14) |
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Two Approaches to Decision Making |
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171 | (1) |
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Why Is the Statistical Approach Superior? |
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172 | (5) |
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173 | (1) |
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173 | (1) |
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174 | (1) |
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175 | (1) |
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176 | (1) |
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Adherence to the Clinical Approach |
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177 | (4) |
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177 | (1) |
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177 | (1) |
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178 | (1) |
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Belief in the Efficacy of One's Judgment |
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178 | (1) |
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Theoretical Identifications |
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179 | (1) |
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The "Dehumanizing" Feel of Statistical Equations |
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180 | (1) |
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Mistaken Conception of Ethics |
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180 | (1) |
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Embracing Statistical Decisions |
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181 | (3) |
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181 | (1) |
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181 | (2) |
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Statistics Do Apply to the Individual |
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183 | (1) |
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Chapter 15 Ethics: The Use and Promotion of Unverified Treatments |
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184 | (13) |
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Overlooking the Obvious in Favor of the Unlikely |
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184 | (1) |
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Repressed Memories and Multiple Personalities |
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185 | (6) |
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191 | (2) |
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Skewed Projections of Benefit and Harm |
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191 | (1) |
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The Overlooked Opportunity Costs |
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192 | (1) |
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Truly Informed Consent and Patient Autonomy |
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193 | (2) |
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The "Health Freedom" Fallacy |
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195 | (2) |
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Chapter 16 Tools: Suggestions for Critical Thinking |
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197 | (11) |
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The Dangers of a Pseudoscientific Approach to Health Care |
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199 | (1) |
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200 | (7) |
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Reconceptualize Issues in Multiple Ways |
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201 | (1) |
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Beware of Wishful Thinking |
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201 | (1) |
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Consider the Legitimacy of Authorities |
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201 | (1) |
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Seek Risky Tests, Not Weak Confirmation |
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201 | (1) |
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Don't Be Misled by Testimonials |
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202 | (1) |
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Keep in Touch with Reality |
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202 | (1) |
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Remember That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation |
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202 | (1) |
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203 | (1) |
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Formulate Multiple Working Hypotheses |
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203 | (1) |
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Ask What Can Be Predicted |
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203 | (1) |
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Challenge Conspiracy Theories |
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203 | (1) |
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Watch Out for Illusions of Control |
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204 | (1) |
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Be Careful Not to Blame Victims |
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204 | (1) |
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Consider Both Positive and Negative Consequences of a Claim |
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204 | (1) |
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Pay Attention to Base Rates |
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204 | (1) |
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Accept Some Mistakes in Order to Minimize Error |
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205 | (1) |
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Take Advantage of the Power of Statistical Decision Making |
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205 | (1) |
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Don't Misinterpret Regression Toward the Mean |
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205 | (1) |
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Consider Both Costs and Benefits |
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206 | (1) |
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Practice Critical Thinking |
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206 | (1) |
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A Closing Thought on Wishful Thinking |
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207 | (1) |
References |
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208 | (15) |
Index |
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223 | |