Semi-Markov Processes and Reliability

by ;
Format: Hardcover
Pub. Date: 2001-03-01
Publisher(s): Birkhauser
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Summary

The theory of stochastic processes, for science and engineering, can be considered as an extension of probability theory allowing modeling of the evolution of systems over time. The modern theory of Markov processes has its origins in the studies of A.A. Markov (1856-1922) on sequences of experiments "connected in a chain" and in the attempts to describe mathematically the physical phenomenon Brownian motion. The theory of stochastic processes entered in a period of intensive development when the idea of Markov property was brought in. This book is a modern overall view of semi-Markov processes and its applications in reliability. It is accessible to readers with a first course in Probability theory (including the basic notions of Markov chain). The text contains many examples which aid in the understanding of the theoretical notions and shows how to apply them to concrete physical situations including algorithmic simulations. Many examples of the concrete applications in reliability are given. Features:* Processes associated to semi-Markov kernel for general and discrete state spaces* Asymptotic theory of processes and of additive functionals* Statistical estimation of semi-Markov kernel and of reliability function* Monte Carlo simulation* Applications in reliability and maintenance The book is a valuable resource for understanding the latest developments in Semi-Markov Processes and reliability. Practitioners, researchers and professionals in applied mathematics, control and engineering who work in areas of reliability, lifetime data analysis, statistics, probability, and engineering will find this book an up-to-date overview of the field.

Table of Contents

Preface xi
Introduction to Stochastic Processes and the Renewal Process
1(30)
Preliminaries
1(1)
Stopping Times
2(2)
Important Families of Stochastic Processes
4(10)
Second-Order Stochastic Processes
4(3)
Martingales
7(1)
Markov Chains
8(1)
Markov Processes
9(5)
Renewal Processes
14(14)
Introduction
14(2)
Renewal Theory
16(6)
Limit Theorems for the Counting Process
22(2)
Modified Renewal Processes
24(1)
Recurrence Times
25(1)
Stopping or Transient Renewal Processes
25(2)
Alternating Renewal Process
27(1)
Regenerative Processes
28(3)
Markov Renewal Processes
31(20)
The Semi-Markov Kernel
31(2)
Processes Associated to a Semi-Markov Kernel
33(8)
Specification of a Markov Renewal Process
41(1)
Robustness of Markov Renewal Processes
42(4)
Korolyuk's State Space Merging Method
46(5)
Semi-Markov Processes
51(34)
Basic Definitions and Properties
51(9)
Markov Renewal Equation
60(6)
Functionals of the Semi-Markov Process
66(4)
Associated Markov Processes
70(5)
Asymptotic Behavior
75(10)
Countable State Space Markov Renewal and Semi-Markov Processes
85(36)
Definitions
85(8)
Classification of States
93(3)
Markov Renewal Equation
96(3)
Asymptotic Behavior
99(10)
Limit Theorems and Distributions
99(3)
Limit Theorems for the Backward and Forward Processes
102(4)
Limit Theorems for Additive Functionals
106(3)
Finite State Space Semi-Markov Processes
109(1)
Distance Between Transition Functions
110(3)
Phase Type Semi-Markov Kernels
113(3)
Elements of Statistical Estimation
116(5)
Introduction
116(1)
Empirical Estimator
117(2)
Piecewise Exponential Estimator
119(2)
Reliability of Semi-Markov Systems
121(32)
Introduction
121(2)
Basic Definitions
123(3)
Coherent Systems
126(2)
Reliability Modeling in the Finite State Space Case
128(5)
Pointwise Availability
129(1)
Reliability
129(1)
Maintainability
130(1)
Failure Rate
131(1)
Steady-State Availability
131(1)
Hitting Times
131(2)
Methods for Obtaining Transition Probabilities
133(15)
Algebraic Method
133(4)
Complementary Variables Method
137(1)
Formal Solution Method
138(3)
Markov Renewal Equation
141(1)
PH-Distributions Method
141(5)
Equivalent Rates Method
146(1)
Statistical Estimation of Reliability
146(2)
Reliability and Performability Modeling in the General State Space Case
148(5)
Introduction
148(1)
Reliability and Performability Evaluation
148(5)
Examples of Reliability Modeling
153(24)
Introduction
153(1)
A Three-State System
153(3)
A System with Mixed Constant Repair Time
156(1)
A System with Multiphase Repair
156(1)
Availability of a Series System
157(1)
A Maintenance Model
158(2)
A System with Nonregenerative States
160(1)
A Two-Component System with Cold Standby
161(1)
Markov Renewal Shock Models
162(3)
Stochastic Petri Nets
165(2)
Monte Carlo Methods
167(10)
Algorithms
167(2)
Simulation of a Three-State System
169(1)
Simulation of a Maintained System
169(8)
A Measures and Probability 177(12)
Fundamentals
177(4)
Conditional Distributions
181(3)
Fundamental Formulas
184(1)
Examples
185(4)
B Laplace--Stieltjes Transform 189(6)
C Weak Convergence 195(6)
References 201(14)
Notation 215(3)
Index 218

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