Preface |
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xi | (2) |
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xiii | |
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1. The quest for least-regret strategies |
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1 | (21) |
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1 | (4) |
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5 | (2) |
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7 | (5) |
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1.4 Towards a conceptual model of SIA |
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12 | (5) |
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1.5 Towards a typology of SIA |
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17 | (2) |
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19 | (3) |
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2. The historical context of SIA |
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22 | (30) |
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22 | (2) |
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2.2 Industrialization and confrontation: 1800-1945 |
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24 | (6) |
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2.3 Restructuring the international order: 1946-1965 |
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30 | (5) |
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2.4 Cultural protest and economic crisis: 1966-1985 |
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35 | (6) |
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2.5 Towards sustainability: 1986 and beyond |
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41 | (8) |
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49 | (3) |
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3. Methods for the preliminary phase in SIA |
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52 | (34) |
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52 | (4) |
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3.2 Problem analysis and communications strategy |
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56 | (6) |
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3.2.1 Analysis of the problem |
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56 | (3) |
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3.2.2 Design of a communication strategy |
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59 | (1) |
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3.2.3 Preliminary definition of the research problem |
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60 | (1) |
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3.2.4 Iteration and reporting |
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61 | (1) |
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62 | (5) |
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3.3.1 Identification of the system |
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62 | (1) |
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3.3.2 Design of the conceptual model |
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63 | (4) |
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3.3.3 Iteration and reporting |
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67 | (1) |
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67 | (5) |
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3.4.1 Formulation of research questions for the baseline analysis |
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67 | (1) |
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68 | (1) |
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3.4.3 Design of the theoretical model |
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68 | (2) |
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70 | (1) |
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3.4.5 Data analysis, explanation and interpretation |
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71 | (1) |
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3.4.6 Iteration and reporting |
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71 | (1) |
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3.5 Trend analysis and monitoring |
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72 | (9) |
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3.5.1 Identification of trends |
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72 | (3) |
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3.5.2 Design of monitoring |
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75 | (3) |
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78 | (2) |
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3.5.4 Analysis, explanation and interpretation |
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80 | (1) |
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3.5.5 Iteration, pitfalls and reporting |
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81 | (1) |
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81 | (5) |
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3.6.1 Formulation of the research questions |
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81 | (1) |
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3.6.2 Design of the main phase of the SIA study |
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82 | (1) |
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3.6.3 Formation of the project team |
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82 | (2) |
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3.6.4 Planning the main phase of the SIA study |
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84 | (1) |
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3.6.5 Iteration and reporting |
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85 | (1) |
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4. Methods for the Main Phase in SIA |
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86 | (32) |
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86 | (1) |
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86 | (13) |
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4.2.1 Choice of types of scenarios |
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86 | (3) |
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89 | (3) |
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4.2.3 Designing the scenarios |
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92 | (4) |
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4.2.4 Designing critical incidents |
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96 | (2) |
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4.2.5 Iteration and reporting |
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98 | (1) |
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99 | (3) |
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4.3.1 Evaluation of current strategies |
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99 | (1) |
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4.3.2 Design of an integrated set of strategies |
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100 | (2) |
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4.3.3 Iteration and reporting |
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102 | (1) |
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4.4 Assessment of impacts |
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102 | (4) |
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4.4.1 Scenario-to-strategy simulation |
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102 | (3) |
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4.4.2 Additional simulations |
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105 | (1) |
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4.4.3 Iteration and reporting |
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105 | (1) |
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106 | (3) |
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4.5.1 Choice of type of ranking |
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106 | (2) |
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108 | (1) |
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4.5.3 Iteration and reporting |
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109 | (1) |
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4.6 Mitigation of negative impacts |
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109 | (2) |
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4.6.1 Redesigning of strategies and reassessment of impacts |
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109 | (2) |
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4.6.2 Revision of ranking of strategies |
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111 | (1) |
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4.6.3 Iteration and reporting |
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111 | (1) |
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111 | (3) |
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4.7.1 Decision about types of reporting |
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111 | (1) |
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112 | (1) |
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112 | (1) |
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113 | (1) |
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113 | (1) |
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113 | (1) |
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4.8 Auditing and ex-post evaluation |
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114 | (4) |
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114 | (1) |
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4.8.2 Ex-post evaluation of the SIA study |
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115 | (3) |
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118 | (24) |
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118 | (1) |
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5.2 Towards a typology of IA |
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119 | (7) |
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126 | (2) |
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128 | (6) |
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134 | (2) |
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5.6 SIA in integrated impact assessment studies |
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136 | (5) |
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141 | (1) |
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142 | (33) |
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142 | (1) |
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6.2 Determining the size of a SIA study |
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143 | (5) |
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143 | (1) |
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6.2.2 Instant SIA studies |
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144 | (2) |
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6.2.3 Medium-sized SIA studies |
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146 | (1) |
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6.2.4 Large-size SIA studies |
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146 | (1) |
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6.2.5 SIA in action research programmes |
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147 | (1) |
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6.3 Coping with risk and uncertainty in the SIA study |
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148 | (3) |
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6.3.1 Risk and uncertainty |
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149 | (1) |
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149 | (1) |
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150 | (1) |
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6.4 Establishing the SIA study in its social setting |
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151 | (22) |
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6.4.1 Organizational setting of SIA |
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151 | (2) |
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6.4.2 Relationships with the central actor |
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153 | (1) |
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154 | (5) |
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6.4.4 Relationship with basic research |
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159 | (6) |
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6.4.5 Relationships with normative debates |
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165 | (6) |
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6.4.6 Relationships with IA as a social system |
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171 | (2) |
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173 | (2) |
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7. Experiences with SIA in Europe and North America |
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175 | (17) |
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175 | (2) |
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7.2 Method and theory in SIA in the West |
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177 | (2) |
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179 | (6) |
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185 | (3) |
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188 | (1) |
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7.6 Settings of SIA in the West |
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189 | (1) |
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190 | (2) |
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8. SIA in a number of developing countries |
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192 | (20) |
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192 | (1) |
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8.2 Methodological aspects |
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192 | (8) |
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8.2.1 Administrative data |
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194 | (1) |
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194 | (1) |
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195 | (2) |
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8.2.4 Integrating research methodologies |
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197 | (3) |
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8.3 Meso-level SIA in a number of developing countries |
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200 | (6) |
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8.4 Macro-level SIA in a number of developing countries |
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206 | (3) |
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8.4.1 Population growth and the environment |
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206 | (2) |
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8.4.2 Policy impacts on the dynamics of the population |
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208 | (1) |
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8.5 Settings for SIA in developing countries |
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209 | (1) |
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210 | (2) |
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9. Conclusions, discussion and implications |
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212 | (11) |
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212 | (1) |
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212 | (3) |
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215 | (3) |
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9.4 Implications for the future |
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218 | (5) |
Cases and exercises |
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223 | (17) |
Glossary |
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240 | (4) |
Bibliography |
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244 | (10) |
Index |
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254 | |