Taking Chances Winning with Probability

by
Edition: Reprint
Format: Paperback
Pub. Date: 2000-08-17
Publisher(s): Oxford University Press
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Summary

What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse. Every day, people make judgements on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella.Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how probability works. Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyses a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, includingfootball pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour.

Table of Contents

What is probability?
1(13)
Think straight
3(1)
The inviolable rule
4(1)
Some working methods
5(2)
Long runs
7(2)
Averages and variability
9(4)
Lotteries
13(23)
Your chance of winning
14(6)
A winning strategy?
20(6)
More than one ticket?
26(2)
Are the numbers drawn really random?
28(6)
Summary
34(2)
Football Pools, Premium Bonds
36(13)
Football Pools
36(6)
Premium Bonds
42(3)
The best gamble?
45(4)
One coin, many games
49(19)
How's your intuition?
49(2)
Game on
51(3)
Penney-ante
54(5)
How long are you in the lead?
59(6)
Postscript
65(1)
Summary
65(1)
Test yourself quiz
66(2)
Dice
68(22)
One die
68(2)
Two dice---backgammon
70(9)
Tow dice---Monopoly
79(3)
Tow dice---craps
82(1)
Three or more dice---totals
83(2)
Four dice---Chevalier de Mere's problem
85(1)
Bettering an opponent
86(1)
Fairground games
87(3)
Games with few choices
90(33)
The dating game
91(1)
An easier game
92(1)
A fisherman's tale
93(1)
Back to Table 6.2
94(3)
A fair game?
97(1)
Finding the best strategies
98(2)
Other games
100(6)
Two choices for Roy, many for Colin
106(1)
Counter signals
107(4)
Games animals play
111(4)
The battle of the sexes
115(3)
Postscript
118(1)
Summary
119(2)
Test yourself quiz
121(2)
Waiting, waiting, waiting
123(22)
Birthdays
123(4)
The Spoilers (2)
127(1)
Other matches
128(2)
More than one match?
130(1)
Packs of cards (1)
131(2)
Packs of cards (2)
133(3)
Card/coupon collecting
136(6)
The secretary problem
142(3)
Let's play best of three
145(16)
Snooker-type games
146(6)
Squash-type games
152(3)
Anyone for tennis?
155(4)
Summary
159(2)
TV games
161(23)
Find the lady
161(2)
Wipeout
163(12)
The Showcase showdown
175(3)
Blockbusters
178(4)
Postcript
182(2)
Casino games
184(32)
Roulette
185(16)
Casino stud poker
201(9)
Baccarat chemin de fer
210(3)
Other casino games
213(2)
Test yourself quiz
215(1)
Bookies, the Tote, spread betting
216(23)
Bookmakers
216(11)
Can you win from the bookies?
227(3)
The Tote
230(2)
Spread betting
232(7)
This sporting life
239(18)
Soccer
239(6)
Golf
245(2)
Cricket
247(4)
Tennis
251(3)
Tournament formats
254(3)
Lucky for some---miscellanea
257(22)
Cards-whist, bridge
257(6)
Shuffling
263(2)
Dividing the prize
265(1)
Vowel or consonant?
266(3)
Benford's law
269(4)
Guess the other colour
273(1)
At least two Aces?
274(3)
Which player is favoured?
277(2)
Appendix I. Counting 279(6)
Appendix II. Probability 285(12)
Appendix III. Averages and variability 297(10)
Appendix IV. Goodnes-of-fit tests 307(8)
Appendix V. The Kelly strategy 315(4)
Solutions to test yourself quizzes 319(5)
Literature cited 324(3)
Index 327

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