Acknowledgments |
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xxv | |
About the Authors |
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xxvii | |
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1 | (52) |
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Introduction to Technical Analysis |
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3 | (6) |
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The Basic Principle of Technical Analysis---The Trend |
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9 | (12) |
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How Does the Technical Analyst Make Money? |
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10 | (1) |
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11 | (1) |
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How Are Trends Identified? |
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12 | (1) |
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13 | (2) |
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15 | (2) |
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What Other Assumptions Do Technical Analysts Make? |
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17 | (2) |
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19 | (1) |
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19 | (2) |
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History of Technical Analysis |
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21 | (10) |
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Early Financial Markets and Exchanges |
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21 | (2) |
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Modern Technical Analysis |
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23 | (5) |
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Current Advances in Technical Analysis |
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28 | (3) |
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The Technical Analysis Controversy |
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31 | (22) |
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Do Markets Follow a Random Walk? |
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33 | (6) |
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33 | (2) |
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35 | (2) |
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37 | (2) |
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Can Past Patterns Be Used to Predict the Future? |
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39 | (1) |
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What About Market Efficiency? |
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39 | (10) |
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41 | (4) |
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45 | (1) |
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Will Arbitrage Keep Prices in Equilibrium? |
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46 | (3) |
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Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis |
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49 | (1) |
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Pragmatic Criticisms of Technical Analysis |
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49 | (1) |
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What Is the Empirical Support for Technical Analysis? |
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50 | (1) |
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51 | (1) |
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51 | (2) |
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Part II: Markets and Market Indicators |
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53 | (136) |
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55 | (18) |
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In What Types of Markets Can Technical Analysis Be Used? |
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56 | (1) |
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57 | (6) |
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58 | (2) |
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60 | (3) |
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63 | (1) |
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63 | (3) |
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Who Are the Market Players? |
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66 | (1) |
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How Is the Market Measured? |
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67 | (3) |
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67 | (1) |
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Market Capitalization Weighted Average |
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68 | (1) |
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Equally Weighted (or Geometric) Average |
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69 | (1) |
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70 | (1) |
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70 | (3) |
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73 | (12) |
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76 | (7) |
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78 | (1) |
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79 | (1) |
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79 | (1) |
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80 | (2) |
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82 | (1) |
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Criticisms of the Dow Theory |
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83 | (1) |
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83 | (1) |
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84 | (1) |
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85 | (40) |
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86 | (1) |
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Market Players and Sentiment |
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87 | (1) |
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How Does Human Bias Affect Decision Making? |
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88 | (2) |
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Crowd Behavior and the Concept of Contrary Opinion |
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90 | (2) |
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How Is Sentiment of Uninformed Players Measured? |
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92 | (22) |
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The Concept of Sentiment Indicators |
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92 | (1) |
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Sentiment Indicators Based on Options and Volatility |
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92 | (6) |
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98 | (5) |
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Other Measures of Contrary Opinion |
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103 | (9) |
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Unquantifiable Contrary Indicators |
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112 | (1) |
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113 | (1) |
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How Is the Sentiment of Informed Players Measured? |
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114 | (6) |
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114 | (6) |
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Sentiment in Other Markets |
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120 | (3) |
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120 | (1) |
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Treasury Bond Primary Dealer Positions |
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121 | (1) |
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122 | (1) |
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T-Bill Rate Expectations by Money Market Fund Managers |
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122 | (1) |
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123 | (1) |
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123 | (2) |
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Measuring Market Strength |
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125 | (30) |
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127 | (15) |
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The Breadth Line or Advance-Decline Line |
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128 | (4) |
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The Advance-Decline Line Moving Average |
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132 | (1) |
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One-Day Change in the Advance-Decline Line |
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133 | (2) |
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135 | (3) |
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138 | (4) |
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142 | (1) |
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Summary of Breadth Indicators |
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142 | (1) |
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Up and Down Volume Indicators |
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142 | (4) |
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143 | (2) |
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Ninety Percent Downside Days (NPDD) |
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145 | (1) |
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Net New Highs and Net New Lows |
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146 | (2) |
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New Highs Versus New Lows |
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147 | (1) |
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148 | (1) |
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148 | (1) |
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Number of Stocks Above Their 30-Week Moving Average |
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148 | (2) |
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Very Short-Term Indicators |
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150 | (2) |
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Breadth and New Highs to New Lows |
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150 | (1) |
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151 | (1) |
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152 | (1) |
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152 | (2) |
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154 | (1) |
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Temporal Patterns and Cycles |
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155 | (14) |
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Periods Longer than Four Years |
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156 | (3) |
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Kondratieff Waves, or K-Waves |
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156 | (3) |
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34-Year Historical Cycles |
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159 | (1) |
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160 | (1) |
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Periods of Four Years or Less |
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161 | (4) |
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Four-Year or Presidential Cycle |
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161 | (2) |
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163 | (1) |
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164 | (1) |
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165 | (1) |
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165 | (1) |
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165 | (1) |
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165 | (1) |
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166 | (1) |
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166 | (3) |
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169 | (20) |
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170 | (3) |
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170 | (1) |
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171 | (1) |
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172 | (1) |
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Funds Outside the Security Market |
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173 | (4) |
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Household Financial Assets |
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173 | (1) |
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174 | (2) |
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176 | (1) |
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177 | (3) |
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Short-Term Interest Rates |
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177 | (1) |
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178 | (1) |
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Boucher's T-Bill Rate of Change Rule |
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179 | (1) |
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Zweig's Prime Rate Indicator |
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180 | (1) |
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180 | (6) |
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Predicting Federal Reserve Policy Changes |
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181 | (1) |
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182 | (1) |
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Three Steps and a Stumble |
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183 | (1) |
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183 | (1) |
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Long-Term Interest Rates (or Inversely, the Bond Market) |
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184 | (1) |
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185 | (1) |
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186 | (1) |
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186 | (3) |
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189 | (110) |
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History and Construction of Charts |
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191 | (24) |
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193 | (3) |
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What Data Is Needed to Construct a Chart? |
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196 | (2) |
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What Types of Charts Do Analysts Use? |
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198 | (7) |
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198 | (1) |
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198 | (3) |
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201 | (2) |
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203 | (2) |
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What Type of Scale Should Be Used? |
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205 | (2) |
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205 | (1) |
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206 | (1) |
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207 | (5) |
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208 | (1) |
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209 | (1) |
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210 | (1) |
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211 | (1) |
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212 | (1) |
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212 | (1) |
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212 | (1) |
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213 | (2) |
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215 | (32) |
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Trend---The Key to Profits |
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216 | (1) |
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217 | (1) |
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Basis of Trend Analysis---Dow Theory |
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217 | (2) |
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How Does Investor Psychology Impact Trends? |
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219 | (1) |
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How Is the Trend Determined? |
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219 | (3) |
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220 | (2) |
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Determining a Trading Range |
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222 | (8) |
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222 | (1) |
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What Is Support and Resistance? |
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222 | (1) |
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Why Do Support and Resistance Occur? |
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222 | (2) |
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What About Round Numbers? |
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224 | (1) |
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How Are Important Reversal Points Determined? |
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224 | (5) |
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How Do Analysts Use Trading Ranges? |
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229 | (1) |
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Directional Trends (Up and Down) |
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230 | (8) |
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What Is a Directional Trend? |
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230 | (2) |
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How Is an Uptrend Spotted? |
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232 | (5) |
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237 | (1) |
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238 | (1) |
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238 | (2) |
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240 | (1) |
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Other Types of Trend Lines |
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241 | (3) |
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Trend Lines on Point-and-Figure Charts |
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241 | (1) |
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242 | (1) |
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243 | (1) |
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244 | (1) |
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244 | (3) |
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Breakouts, Stops, and Retracements |
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247 | (24) |
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248 | (8) |
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248 | (1) |
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How Is Breakout Confirmed? |
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248 | (1) |
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248 | (7) |
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Can a Breakout Be Anticipated? |
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255 | (1) |
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256 | (11) |
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What Are Entry and Exit Stops? |
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256 | (1) |
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257 | (1) |
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What Are Protective Stops? |
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257 | (1) |
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258 | (4) |
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262 | (1) |
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262 | (1) |
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How Can Stops Be Used with Breakouts? |
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263 | (1) |
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Using Stops When Gaps Occur |
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263 | (1) |
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264 | (1) |
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Calculating a Risk/Return Ratio for Breakout Trading |
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265 | (1) |
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Placing Stops for a False (or ``Specialist'') Breakout |
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265 | (2) |
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267 | (1) |
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268 | (3) |
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271 | (28) |
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What Is a Moving Average? |
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272 | (1) |
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How Is a Simple Moving Average Calculated? |
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272 | (7) |
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276 | (2) |
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Using Multiple Moving Averages |
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278 | (1) |
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What Other Types of Moving Averages Are Used? |
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279 | (4) |
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The Linearly Weighted Moving Average (LWMA) |
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279 | (1) |
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The Exponentially Smoothed Moving Average (EMA) |
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280 | (2) |
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282 | (1) |
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Geometric Moving Average (GMA) |
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282 | (1) |
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Triangular Moving Average |
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282 | (1) |
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283 | (1) |
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Strategies for Using Moving Averages |
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283 | (3) |
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283 | (1) |
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Determining Support and Resistance |
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284 | (1) |
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Determining Price Extremes |
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284 | (2) |
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286 | (1) |
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What Is Directional Movement? |
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286 | (3) |
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Constructing Directional Movement Indicators |
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287 | (1) |
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Using Directional Movement Indicators |
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287 | (2) |
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What Are Envelopes, Channels, and Bands? |
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289 | (7) |
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290 | (1) |
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291 | (2) |
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Trading Strategies Using Bands and Envelopes |
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293 | (2) |
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295 | (1) |
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296 | (1) |
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297 | (2) |
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Part IV: Chart Pattern Analysis |
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299 | (110) |
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301 | (40) |
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302 | (3) |
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Common Pattern Characteristics |
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302 | (3) |
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305 | (2) |
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Behavioral Finance and Pattern Recognition |
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306 | (1) |
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Computers and Pattern Recognition |
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307 | (1) |
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Market Structure and Pattern Recognition |
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308 | (1) |
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309 | (1) |
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How Profitable Are Patterns? |
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310 | (1) |
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Classic Bar Chart Patterns |
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311 | (20) |
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Double Top and Double Bottom |
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311 | (2) |
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Rectangle (Also ``Trading Range'' or ``Box'') |
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313 | (3) |
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Triple Top and Triple Bottom |
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316 | (2) |
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Standard Triangles---Descending, Ascending, and Symmetrical |
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318 | (1) |
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319 | (2) |
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321 | (1) |
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Symmetrical Triangle (Also ``Coil'' or ``Isosceles Triangle'') |
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322 | (2) |
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324 | (1) |
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325 | (2) |
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327 | (4) |
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Patterns with Rounded Edges---Rounding and Head and Shoulders |
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331 | (6) |
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Rounding Top, Rounding Bottom (Also ``Saucer,'' ``Bowl,'' or ``Cup'') |
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331 | (1) |
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332 | (3) |
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Shorter Continuation Trading Patterns---Flags and Pennants (Also ``Half-Mast Formation'') |
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335 | (2) |
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Long-Term Bar Chart Patterns with the Best Performance and the Lowest Risk of Failure |
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337 | (2) |
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339 | (1) |
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339 | (2) |
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Point-and-Figure Chart Patterns |
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341 | (24) |
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What Is Different About a Point-and-Figure Chart? |
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342 | (1) |
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342 | (1) |
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Continuous Price Flow Necessary |
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342 | (1) |
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``Old'' and ``New'' Methods |
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343 | (1) |
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History of Point-and-Figure Charting |
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343 | (2) |
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One-Box Reversal Point-and-Figure Charts |
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345 | (6) |
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Consolidation Area on the One-Box Chart (Also ``Congestion Area'') |
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345 | (1) |
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Trend Lines in One-Box Charts |
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346 | (1) |
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The Count in a One-Point Chart |
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347 | (2) |
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349 | (1) |
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350 | (1) |
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350 | (1) |
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Three-Point (or Box) Reversal Point-and-Figure Charts |
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351 | (12) |
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Trend Lines with Three-Box Charts |
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352 | (1) |
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The Count Using Three-Box Reversal Charts |
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353 | (2) |
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The Eight Standard Patterns for Three-Box Reversal Charts |
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355 | (5) |
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360 | (3) |
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363 | (1) |
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364 | (1) |
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365 | (44) |
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Pattern Construction and Determination |
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368 | (1) |
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Traditional Short-Term Patterns |
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368 | (26) |
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369 | (7) |
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Spike (or Wide-Range or Large-Range Bar) |
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376 | (1) |
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376 | (3) |
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379 | (1) |
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One- and Two-Bar Reversal Patterns |
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379 | (8) |
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387 | (3) |
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390 | (2) |
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392 | (2) |
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Summary of Short-Term Patterns |
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394 | (1) |
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395 | (12) |
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One- and Two-Bar Candlestick Patterns |
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397 | (5) |
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402 | (5) |
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407 | (1) |
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407 | (2) |
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Part V: Trend Confirmation |
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409 | (44) |
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411 | (42) |
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412 | (19) |
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412 | (1) |
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412 | (3) |
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Do Volume Statistics Contain Valuable Information? |
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415 | (1) |
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How Are Volume Statistics Used? |
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416 | (1) |
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Which Indexes and Oscillators Incorporate Volume? |
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417 | (5) |
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Volume-Related Oscillators |
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422 | (6) |
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428 | (1) |
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Examples of Volume Spikes |
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429 | (2) |
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431 | (2) |
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431 | (1) |
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431 | (2) |
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433 | (15) |
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433 | (1) |
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How Successful Are Momentum Indicators? |
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434 | (1) |
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Specific Indexes and Oscillators |
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435 | (13) |
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448 | (1) |
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449 | (4) |
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Part VI: Other Technical Methods and Rules |
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453 | (56) |
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455 | (30) |
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458 | (6) |
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Other Aspects of Cycle Analysis |
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461 | (3) |
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How Can Cycles Be Found in Market Data? |
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464 | (11) |
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Fourier Analysis (Spectral Analysis) |
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464 | (1) |
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Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis |
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465 | (1) |
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Simpler (and More Practical) Methods |
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466 | (9) |
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475 | (8) |
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475 | (1) |
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476 | (7) |
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483 | (1) |
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483 | (2) |
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Elliott, Fibonacci, and Gann |
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485 | (24) |
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Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) |
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485 | (16) |
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486 | (1) |
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Basic Elliott Wave Theory |
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486 | (2) |
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488 | (3) |
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491 | (4) |
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Guidelines and General Characteristics in EWT |
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495 | (1) |
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Projected Targets and Retracements |
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496 | (2) |
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498 | (2) |
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500 | (1) |
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501 | (5) |
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501 | (1) |
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501 | (1) |
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501 | (1) |
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501 | (4) |
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505 | (1) |
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506 | (1) |
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507 | (2) |
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509 | (28) |
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Selection of Markets and Issues: Trading and Investing |
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511 | (26) |
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Which Issues Should I Select for Trading? |
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511 | (3) |
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Choosing Between Futures Markets and Stock Markets |
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512 | (2) |
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Which Issues Should I Select for Investing? |
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514 | (1) |
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515 | (11) |
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515 | (4) |
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519 | (5) |
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Stock Market Industry Sectors |
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524 | (2) |
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Bottom Up---Specific Stock Selection and Relative Strength |
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526 | (4) |
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527 | (1) |
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Academic Studies of Relative Strength |
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527 | (1) |
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Measuring Relative Strength |
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528 | (2) |
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Examples of How Selected Professionals Screen for Favorable Stocks |
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530 | (4) |
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The William O'Neil CANSLIM Method |
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530 | (1) |
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James P. O'Shaughnessy Method |
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531 | (1) |
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Charles D. Kirkpatrick Method |
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531 | (1) |
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532 | (1) |
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Richard D. Wyckoff Method |
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532 | (2) |
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534 | (1) |
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534 | (3) |
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Part VIII: System Testing and Management |
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537 | (54) |
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System Design and Testing |
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539 | (32) |
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Why Are Systems Necessary? |
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540 | (2) |
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Discretionary Versus Nondiscretionary Systems |
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540 | (2) |
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How Do I Design a System? |
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542 | (6) |
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Requirements for Designing a System |
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543 | (1) |
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543 | (1) |
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544 | (1) |
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Types of Technical Systems |
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545 | (3) |
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548 | (9) |
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548 | (9) |
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557 | (11) |
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Measuring System Results for Robustness |
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560 | (8) |
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568 | (1) |
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568 | (3) |
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Money and Risk Management |
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571 | (20) |
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Risk and Money Management |
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572 | (1) |
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Testing Money Management Strategies |
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573 | (1) |
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574 | (10) |
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574 | (1) |
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575 | (1) |
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576 | (1) |
|
|
576 | (6) |
|
|
582 | (2) |
|
Money Management Risk Strategies |
|
|
584 | (4) |
|
|
584 | (4) |
|
Monitoring Systems and Portfolios |
|
|
588 | (1) |
|
|
589 | (1) |
|
|
589 | (1) |
|
|
590 | (1) |
|
|
591 | (2) |
|
|
593 | (28) |
|
|
594 | (1) |
|
Probability and Statistics |
|
|
594 | (1) |
|
|
595 | (8) |
|
Measures of Central Tendency |
|
|
596 | (1) |
|
|
597 | (2) |
|
Relationships Between Variables |
|
|
599 | (4) |
|
|
603 | (4) |
|
|
607 | (6) |
|
|
613 | (2) |
|
Advanced Statistical Methods |
|
|
615 | (1) |
|
|
616 | (2) |
|
|
618 | (3) |
|
B. Types of Orders and Other Trader Terminology |
|
|
621 | (4) |
|
|
623 | (2) |
Bibliography |
|
625 | (20) |
Index |
|
645 | |