Foreword by Chuck Whitman |
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xiii | |
Preface to the Second Edition |
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xix | |
Preface to the First Edition |
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xxiii | |
Acknowledgments |
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xxvii | |
PART ONE THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN YOUR SUCCESS: YOU! |
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Chapter 1 The Legend of the Holy Grail |
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3 | (16) |
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6 | (3) |
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What's Really Important to Trading |
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9 | (2) |
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11 | (8) |
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Chapter 2 Judgmental Biases: Why Mastering the Markets Is So Difficult for Most People |
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19 | (28) |
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Biases That Affect Trading System Development |
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22 | (15) |
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Biases That Affect How You Test Trading Systems |
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37 | (3) |
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Biases That Affect How You Trade Your System |
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40 | (4) |
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44 | (3) |
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Chapter 3 Setting Your Objectives |
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47 | (22) |
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Designing Objectives: A Major Part of Your System Work |
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49 | (1) |
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50 | (9) |
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Setting Your Own Objectives |
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59 | (10) |
PART TWO CONCEPTUALIZING YOUR SYSTEM |
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Chapter 4 Steps to Developing a System |
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69 | (28) |
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70 | (2) |
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2. Develop an Open Mind and Gather Market Information |
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72 | (3) |
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3. Determine Your Mission and Your Objectives |
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75 | (1) |
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4. Determine the Concept That You Want to Trade |
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76 | (5) |
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5. Determine the Big Picture |
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81 | (1) |
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6. Determine Your Time Frame for Trading |
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82 | (3) |
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7. Determine the Essence of Your Trading and How You Can Objectively Measure It |
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85 | (2) |
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8. Determine What Your Initial 1R Risk Will Be |
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87 | (1) |
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9. Add Your Profit-Taking Exits and Determine the R-Multiple Distribution of Your System and Its Expectancy |
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88 | (1) |
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10. Determine the Accuracy of Your R-Multiple Distribution |
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89 | (1) |
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11. Evaluate Your Overall System |
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90 | (1) |
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12. Use Position Sizing to Meet Your Objectives |
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91 | (1) |
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13. Determine How You Can Improve Your System |
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92 | (1) |
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14. Mentally Plan for Your Worst-Case Scenario |
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93 | (4) |
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Chapter 5 Selecting a Concept That Works |
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97 | (56) |
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98 | (4) |
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102 | (5) |
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107 | (3) |
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110 | (6) |
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116 | (8) |
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124 | (5) |
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129 | (7) |
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136 | (6) |
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There's an Order to the Universe |
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142 | (6) |
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148 | (5) |
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Chapter 6 Trading Strategies That Fit the Big Picture |
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153 | (36) |
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The Big Picture as I See It |
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156 | (1) |
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Factor 1. The U.S. Debt Situation |
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157 | (6) |
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Factor 2. The Secular Bear Market |
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163 | (5) |
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Factor 3. The Globalization of Economic Factors |
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168 | (4) |
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Factor 4. The Impact of Mutual Funds |
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172 | (4) |
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Factor 5. Changes in Rules, Regulations, and Taxes |
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176 | (4) |
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Factor 6. Human Beings' Tendency to Play a Losing Economic Game |
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180 | (2) |
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Other Areas You Might Consider |
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182 | (1) |
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Flow Will You Monitor the Big Picture? |
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183 | (2) |
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185 | (4) |
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Chapter 7 Six Keys to a Great Trading System |
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189 | (28) |
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191 | (5) |
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Looking at Expectancy under a Magnifying Glass |
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196 | (4) |
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Opportunity and Expectancy |
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200 | (1) |
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Prediction: A Deadly Trap |
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201 | (1) |
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Real Trading Applications |
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202 | (7) |
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Determining How Your System Will Perform |
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209 | (3) |
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212 | (5) |
PART THREE UNDERSTANDING THE KEY PARTS OF YOUR SYSTEM |
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Chapter 8 Using Setups to Jumpstart Your System |
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217 | (34) |
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219 | (7) |
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Setups for Stalking the Market |
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226 | (6) |
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232 | (6) |
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Setups Used by Well-Known Systems |
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238 | (10) |
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248 | (3) |
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Chapter 9 Entry or Market Timing |
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251 | (36) |
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Trying to Beat Random Entry |
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253 | (2) |
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255 | (20) |
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Designing Your Own Entry Signal |
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275 | (4) |
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An Evaluation of Entry Used in Some Common Systems |
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279 | (5) |
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284 | (3) |
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Chapter 10 Knowing When to Fold 'Em: How to Protect Your Capital |
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287 | (22) |
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289 | (10) |
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Using a Stop That Makes Sense |
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299 | (4) |
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Stops Used by Common Systems |
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303 | (3) |
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306 | (3) |
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Chapter 11 How to Take Profits |
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309 | (20) |
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Purpose behind Profit-Taking Exits |
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310 | (8) |
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Just Using Your Stop and a Profit Objective |
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318 | (1) |
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Simplicity and Multiple Exits |
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319 | (1) |
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320 | (1) |
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Exits Used by Common Systems |
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321 | (3) |
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324 | (5) |
PART FOUR PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER |
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Chapter 12 There's Money for Everyone |
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329 | (56) |
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How Seven Traders Approach Their Craft |
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331 | (7) |
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How Our Traders Would Look at Five Key Market Situations |
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338 | (32) |
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370 | (10) |
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380 | (2) |
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382 | (3) |
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Chapter 13 Evaluating Your System |
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385 | (20) |
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Several Approaches to Take |
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386 | (2) |
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Expectunity: Factoring in Opportunity |
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388 | (2) |
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The Cost-of-Trading Opportunity |
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390 | (4) |
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394 | (3) |
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Using Newsletter Recommendations as Sample Systems |
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397 | (6) |
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403 | (2) |
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Chapter 14 Position Sizing—the Key to Meeting Your Objectives |
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405 | (32) |
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Basic Position-Sizing Strategies |
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411 | (4) |
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Model 1: One Unit per Fixed Amount of Money |
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415 | (4) |
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Model 2: Equal Value Units for Stock Traders |
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419 | (2) |
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Model 3: The Percent Risk Model |
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421 | (5) |
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Model 4: The Percent Volatility Model |
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426 | (2) |
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428 | (2) |
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Position Sizing Used by Other Systems |
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430 | (4) |
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434 | (3) |
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437 | (18) |
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439 | (2) |
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What's Left Now: An Interview with Dr. Tharp |
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441 | (14) |
Glossary |
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455 | (12) |
Recommended Readings |
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467 | (4) |
Index |
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471 | |