Interest Rate Models : Theory and Practice with Smile, Inflation and Credit

by ;
Edition: 1st
Format: Hardcover
Pub. Date: 2001-08-01
Publisher(s): Springer Verlag
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Summary

The 2nd edition of this successful book has several new features. The calibration discussion of the basic LIBOR market model has been enriched considerably, with an analysis of the impact of the swaptions interpolation technique and of the exogenous instantaneous correlation on the calibration outputs. A discussion of historical estimation of the instantaneous correlation matrix and of rank reduction has been added, and a LIBOR-model consistent swaption-volatility interpolation technique has been introduced. The old sections devoted to the smile issue in the LIBOR market model have been enlarged into a new chapter. New sections on local-volatility dynamics, and on stochastic volatility models have been added, with a thorough treatment of the recently developed uncertain-volatility approach.Examples of calibrations to real market data are now considered. The fast-growing interest for hybrid products has led to a new chapter. A special focus here is devoted to the pricing of inflation-linked derivatives. The three final new chapters of this second edition are devoted to credit.Since Credit Derivatives are increasingly fundamental, and since in the reduced-form modeling framework much of the technique involved is analogous to interest-rate modeling, Credit Derivatives -- mostly Credit Default Swaps (CDS), CDS Options and Constant Maturity CDS - are discussed, building on the basic short rate-models and market models introduced earlier for the default-free market. Counterparty risk in interest rate payoff valuation is also considered, motivated by the recent Basel II framework developments.

Table of Contents

Prefacep. ü
Motivationp. ü
Aims, Readership and Book Structurep. ü
Final Word and Acknowledgmentsp. üI
Description of Contents by Chapterp. VI
Abbreviations and Notationp. XV
Models: Theory And Implementation
Definitions and Notationp. 1
The Bank Account and the Short Ratep. 1
Zero-Coupon Bonds and Spot Interest Ratesp. 3
Fundamental Interest-Rate Curvesp. 8
Forward Ratesp. 10
Interest-Rate Swaps and Forward Swap Ratesp. 13
Interest-Rate Caps/Floors and Swaptionsp. 15
No-Arbitrage Pricing and Numeraire Changep. 23
No-Arbitrage in Continuous Timep. 24
The Change-of-Numeraire Techniquep. 26
A Change-of-Numeraire Toolkitp. 28
The Choice of a Convenient Numerairep. 32
The Forward Measurep. 33
The Fundamental Pricing Formulasp. 35
The Pricing of Caps and Floorsp. 36
Pricing Claims with Deferred Payoffsp. 37
Pricing Claims with Multiple Payoffsp. 38
Foreign Markets and Numeraire Changep. 40
One-factor short-rate modelsp. 43
Introduction and Guided Tourp. 43
Classical Time-Homogeneous Short-Rate Modelsp. 48
The Vasicek Modelp. 50
The Dothan Modelp. 54
The Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (CIR) Modelp. 56
Affine Term-Structure Modelsp. 60
The Exponential-Vasicek (EV) Modelp. 61
The Hull-White Extended Vasicek Modelp. 63
The Short-Rate Dynamicsp. 64
Bond and Option Pricingp. 66
The Construction of a Trinomial Treep. 69
Possible Extensions of the CIR Modelp. 72
The Black-Karasinski Modelp. 73
The Short-Rate Dynamicsp. 74
The Construction of a Trinomial Treep. 76
Volatility Structures in One-Factor Short-Rate Modelsp. 77
Humped-Volatility Short-Rate Modelsp. 83
A General Deterministic-Shift Extensionp. 86
The Basic Assumptionsp. 87
Fitting the Initial Term Structure of Interest Ratesp. 88
Explicit Formulas for European Optionsp. 90
The Vasicek Casep. 91
The CIR++ Modelp. 93
The Construction of a Trinomial Treep. 96
The Positivity of Rates and Fitting Qualityp. 97
Deterministic-Shift Extension of Lognormal Modelsp. 100
Some Further Remarks on Derivatives Pricingp. 102
Pricing European Options on a Coupon-Bearing Bondp. 102
The Monte Carlo Simulationp. 103
Pricing Early-Exercise Derivatives with a Treep. 106
A Fundamental Case of Early Exercise: Bermudan-Style Swaptionsp. 1ll
Implied Cap Volatility Curvesp. 114
The Black and Karasinski Modelp. 115
The CIR+-I- Modelp. 116
The Extended Exponential-Vasicek Modelp. 117
Implied Swaption Volatility Surfacesp. 119
The Black and Karasinski Modelp. 120
The Extended Exponential-Vasicek Modelp. 120
An Example of Calibration to Real-Market Datap. 121
Two-Factor Short-Rate Modelsp. 127
Introduction and Motivationp. 127
The Two-Additive-Factor Gaussian Model G2++p. 132
The Short-Rate Dynamicsp. 133
The Pricing of a Zero-Coupon Bondp. 134
Volatility and Correlation Structures in Two-Factor Modelsp. 137
The Pricing of a European Option on a Zero-Coupon Bondp. 143
The Analogy with the Hull-White Two-Factor Modelp. 149
The Construction of an Approximating Binomial Treep. 152
Examples of Calibration to Real-Market Datap. 156
The Two-Additive-Factor Extended CIR/LS Model CIR2++p. 165
The Basic Two-Factor CIR2 Modelp. 166
Relationship with the Longstaff and Schwartz Model (LS)p. 167
Forward-Measure Dynamics and Option Pricing for CIR2p. 168
The CIR2++ Model and Option Pricingp. 168
The Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) Frameworkp. 173
The HJM Forward-Rate Dynamicsp. 175
Markovianity of the Short-Rate Processp. 176
The Ritchken and Sankarasubramanian Frameworkp. 177
The Mercurio and Moraleda Modelp. 181
The LIBOR and Swap Market Models (LFM and LSM)p. 183
Introductionp. 183
Market Models: a Guided Tourp. 184
The Lognormal Forward-LIBOR Model (LFM)p. 192
Some Specifications of the Instantaneous Volatility of Forward Ratesp. 195
Forward-Rate Dynamics under Different Numerairesp. 198
Calibration of the LFM to Caps and Floors Pricesp. 203
Piecewise-Constant Instantaneous-Volatility Structuresp. 206
Parametric Volatility Structuresp. 207
Cap Quotes in the Marketp. 208
The Term Structure of Volatilityp. 210
Piecewise-Constant Instantaneous Volatility Structuresp. 210
Parametric Volatility Structuresp. 215
Instantaneous Correlation and Terminal Correlationp. 217
Swaptions and the Lognormal Forward-Swap Model (LSM)p. 220
Swaptions Hedgingp. 224
Cash-Settled Swaptionsp. 226
Incompatibility between the LFM and the LSMp. 227
The Structure of Instantaneous Correlationsp. 230
Monte Carlo Pricing of Swaptions with the LFMp. 233
Rank-One Analytical Swaption Pricesp. 236
Rank-r Analytical Swaption Pricesp. 242
A Simpler LFM Formula for Swaptions Volatilitiesp. 246
A Formula for Terminal Correlations of Forward Ratesp. 249
Calibration to Swaptions Pricesp. 252
Connecting Caplet and 5 x 1-Swaption Volatilitiesp. 254
Forward and Spot Rates over Non-Standard Periodsp. 261
Drift Interpolationp. 262
The Bridging Techniquep. 264
p. 266
A Mini-tour on the Smile Problemp. 266
Modeling the Smilep. 270
The Shifted-Lognormal Casep. 271
The Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) Modelp. 273
A Mixture-of-Lognormals Modelp. 276
Shifting the Lognormal-Mixture Dynamicsp. 280
Cases of Calibration of the LIBOR Market Modelp. 283
The Inputsp. 284
Joint Calibration with Piecewise-Constant Volatilities as in TABLE 5p. 284
Instantaneous Correlations: Narrowing the Anglesp. 288
Instantaneous Correlations: Fixing the Angles to Typ-ical Valuesp. 290
Instantaneous Correlations: Fixing the Angles to Atyp-ical Valuesp. 292
Instantaneous Correlations: Collapsing to One Factorp. 293
Joint Calibration with Parameterized Volatilities as in For-mulation 7p. 295
Formulation 7: Narrowing the Anglesp. 297
Formulation 7: Calibrating only to Swaptionsp. 300
Exact Swaptions Calibration with Volatilities as TABLE 1p. 303
Some Numerical Resultsp. 309
Conclusions: Where Now?p. 314
Monte Carlo Tests for LFM Analytical Approximationsp. 317
The Specification of Ratesp. 317
The "Testing Plan" for Volatilitiesp. 318
Test Results for Volatilitiesp. 321
Case (1): Constant Instantaneous Volatilitiesp. 322
Case (2): Volatilities as Functions of Time to Maturityp. 329
Case (3): Humped and Maturity-Adjusted Instanta-neous Volatilities Depending only on Time to Matu-rity, Typical Rank-Two Correlationsp. 334
The "Testing Plan" for Terminal Correlationsp. 345
Test Results for Terminal Correlationsp. 353
Case (i): Humped and Maturity-Adjusted Instanta-neous Volatilities Depending only on Time to Matu-rity, Typical Rank-Two Correlationsp. 353
Case (ü): Constant Instantaneous Volatilities, Typical Rank-Two Correlationsp. 355
Case (üi): Humped and Maturity-Adjusted Instanta-neous Volatilities Depending only on Time to Matu-rity, Some Negative Rank-Two Correlationsp. 359
Case (iv): Constant Instantaneous Volatilities, Some Negative Rank-Two Correlationsp. 363
Case (v): Constant Instantaneous Volatilities, Perfect Correlations, Upwardly Shifted $$'sp. 365
Test Results: Stylized Conclusionsp. 367
Other Interest-Rate Modelsp. 369
Brennan and Schwartz's Modelp. 369
Balduzzi, Das, Foresi and Sundaram's Modelp. 370
Flesaker and Hughston's Modelp. 371
Rogers's Potential Approachp. 373
Markov Functional Modelsp. 373
Pricing Derivatives In Practice
Pricing Derivatives on a Single Interest-Rate Curvep. 377
In-Advance Swapsp. 378
In-Advance Capsp. 379
A First Analytical Formula (LFM)p. 380
A Second Analytical Formula (G2++)p. 380
Autocapsp. 381
Caps with Deferred Capletsp. 382
A First Analytical Formula (LFM)p. 382
A Second Analytical Formula (G2++)p. 383
Ratchets (One-Way Floaters)p. 384
Constant-Maturity Swaps (CMS)p. 385
CMS with the LFMp. 385
CMS with the G2++ Modelp. 386
The Convexity Adjustment and Applications to CMSp. 386
Natural and Unnatural Time Lagsp. 386
The Convexity-Adjustment Techniquep. 387
Deducing a Simple Lognormal Dynamics from the Adjustmentp. 391
Application to CMSp. 392
Forward Rate Resetting Unnaturally and Average-Rate Swapsp. 393
Captions and Floortionsp. 395
Zero-Coupon Swaptionsp. 395
Eurodollar Futuresp. 399
The Shifted Two-Factor Vasicek G2++ Modelp. 400
Eurodollar Futures with the LFMp. 402
LFM Pricing with "In-Between" Spot Ratesp. 402
Accrual Swapsp. 403
Trigger Swapsp. 406
LFM Pricing with Early Exercise and Possible Path Depen-dencep. 408
LFM: Pricing Bermudan Swaptionsp. 412
Longstaff and Schwartz's Approachp. 413
Carr and Yang's Approachp. 415
Andersen's Approachp. 416
Pricing Derivatives on Two Interest-Rate Curvesp. 421
The Attractive Features of G2++ for Multi-Curve Payoffsp. 421
The Modelp. 421
Interaction Between Models of the Two Curves "1" and "2"p. 424
The Two-Models Dynamics under a Unique Conve-nient Forward Measurep. 425
Quanto Constant-Maturity Swapsp. 427
Quanto CMS: The Contractp. 427
Quanto CMS: The G2++ Modelp. 429
Quanto CMS: Quanto Adjustmentp. 435
Differential Swapsp. 437
The Contractp. 437
Differential Swaps with the G2++ Modelp. 438
A Market-Like Formulap. 440
Market Formulas for Basic Quanto Derivativesp. 440
The Pricing of Quanto Caplets/Floorletsp. 440
The Pricing of Quanto Caps/Floorsp. 443
The Pricing of Differential Swapsp. 444
The Pricing of Quanto Swaptionsp. 444
Pricing Equity Derivatives under Stochastic Ratesp. 453
The Short Rate and Asset-Price Dynamicsp. 453
The Dynamics under the Forward Measurep. 456
The Pricing of a European Option on the Given Assetp. 458
A More General Modelp. 459
The Construction of an Approximating Tree for rp. 460
The Approximating Tree for 5p. 462
The Two-Dimensional Treep. 463
Appendices
A Crash Introduction to Stochastic Differential Equationsp. 469
From Deterministic to Stochastic Differential Equationsp. 469
Ito's Formula476
Discretizing SDEs for Monte Carlo: Euler and Milstein Schemesp. 478
Examplesp. 480
Two Important Theoremsp. 482
A Useful Calculationp. 485
Approximating Diffusions with Treesp. 487
Talking to the Tradersp. 493
Referencesp. 501
Indexp. 509
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